SCOTTSDALE, AZ – After dropping 15% in 2019, the worldwide IC market is expected to show single-digit growth in 2020, even with the disastrous effects of Covid-19 on the global economy, according to IC Insights.
From 1984-2019, the average seasonal sequential decline in the first quarter was 2%. In the first quarter of 2020, the IC market was down 3% sequentially, slightly below the 36-year average. Excluding the years after the severe IC industry downturns of 1985 and 2001, IC Insights believes the sequential market change is a good indicator of the direction and intensity of the annual IC market change.
IC Insights believes the annual growth rate for the 2020 IC market, even after incorporating the negative impact of Covid-19, is likely to be much better (3%) than the 15% decline the IC market registered in 2019.
The sequential change from the fourth quarter to the first quarter does not directly forecast the eventual annual IC market growth for a given year, but more accurately describes the expected direction and intensity of the annual IC market growth rate compared to the previous year, says IC Insights. For example, 2017 showed 0% sequential growth in the first quarter and 25% annual IC market growth, whereas 2011 displayed 1% first quarter sequential growth but a full-year IC market growth rate of 1%.
Overall, when the first quarter sequential performance of a given year is better than the previous year’s, the annual growth rate for that year can be expected to be better than the previous year. The opposite is usually true when the first quarter sequential performance of the current year is worse than the year earlier.
Originally, IC Insights forecast a first quarter sequential market decline of 5% and a full-year 2020 IC market increase of 8%. Excluding the now known severe damage of Covid-19 on the global economy, IC Insights would most likely have raised its full-year 2020 IC market forecast from 8% growth to 10% or more.