EL SEGUNDO, CA – Amid rapidly deteriorating conditions in the global economy and financial system, iSuppli Corp. has slashed its 2009 forecast for PC unit shipments nearly two-thirds.
iSuppli’s revised forecast predicts global PC shipments will rise 4.3% in 2009, down from its previous estimate of 11.9%. The forecast for 2010 calls for a 7.1% growth in shipments, down from the previous outlook of 9.4%.
Desktop PCs will suffer a shipment next year, declining approximately 5%, while notebooks will grow about 15%.
“Since iSuppli published its last worldwide PC forecast, the landscape of the global economy has changed dramatically, and in many ways irrevocably,” says Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms, for iSuppli.
Wilkins notes established banking institutions have crumbled, with many requiring government aid to survive. The magnitude of the banking collapse has been so great that its impact on the availability of credit – and interest rates – has affected large corporations, small businesses and even the man on the street, he says.
“The result of the financial turmoil is less money to spend, and often that money is itself more expensive,” Wilkins says. “With less money to spend, application markets, like PCs, have been impacted.”
The PC market has been a buoyant end-application market for a long time, reporting annual growth rates around 10% for the past five years – with 2008 becoming the sixth year, as a result of 13% growth expected, says iSuppli. However, in light of the credit collapse that hit during the third quarter, prospects for the PC market in 2009 are not as positive as in previous years.
“Real issues – such as difficulties in paying staff, or making rising mortgage payments – are affecting businesses as well as consumers,” Wilkins said. “In light of such financial issues, the task of refreshing or acquiring new IT equipment has taken a back seat.”
The forecast of growth in notebook shipments arises from the fact that the segment is currently performing very well and has strong momentum – not to mention the attractive pricing for low-cost notebooks, known as netbooks. iSuppli believes demand for netbooks will show less of a reduction in 2009 than other notebook platforms, primarily because of their lower average selling prices.
SAN JOSE, CA – SEMI has released its October 2008 Book-to-Bill Report. According to the report, North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment had a three-month average of worldwide bookings totaling $843 million. That is nearly a 30% increase over September’s figure. The book-to-bill ratio was 0.93, matching February’s figure, the highest monthly total for 2008. The three-month average for worldwide billings reached $908 million, 2% less than September’s level of $927 million. “While three-month average bookings improved in October, overall bookings and billings for North American equipment manufacturers are at level comparable to 2003,” explained Stanley Myers, SEMI’s president and CEO. He suggests that the industry waits until the early part of 2009 for clearer signals regarding market direction.
SAN JOSE, CA – The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has released its annual global semiconductor sales forecast. According to the forecast, 2009 sales are predicted to decline by 5.6% to $246.7 billion. This will mark the first decline in sales since 2001. SIA bases the projections on a recent report from Deutsche Bank, forecasting a 5% decline in personal computer sales and a 6.4% decline in mobile handset sales for the coming year.
Despite the weakening global economy and consumer confidence, semiconductor sales did remain solid through the first three quarters of 2008. Sales for the year are projected to reach $261.2 billion, a 2.2% increase over last year’s sales.
SAN JOSE – Global sales of semiconductors will fall 2.2% in 2009, according to a revised forecast by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group, citing the overall economy.
The trade group said chip sales would drop to $256 billion next year, down from an estimated $261.9 billion in 2008. In May, WSTS forecast 5.8% growth for 2009.
The WSTS is made up of 66 semiconductor manufacturers whose sales represent about 80% of the global market.
Asia-Pacific will be the only region showing growth in 2009, the WSTS said. The group forecasts 1.1% growth in that region in 2009, down 7.6% this year. Meanwhile, the Americas will sustain the biggest hit, dropping 9.8%, followed by drops of 3.8% in Japan and 3.6% in Europe, the WSTS said.
The WSTS also lowered its estimates for 2008 to 2.5% growth, from an earlier forecast of 4.7%.
The trade group expects 6.5% growth in 2010, to $273 billion, down from an earlier forecast of 8.8% growth.
EL SEGUNDO, CA – Amid rapidly deteriorating conditions in the global economy and electronics value chain, iSuppli Corp. now predicts worldwide semiconductor revenue will decline in 2008 compared to 2007.
Global semiconductor revenue now is expected to decrease to $266.6 billion for the full year, down 2% year-over-year. iSuppli's previous forecast in September called for 3.5% growth.
iSuppli’s forecast tracks with an announcement yesterday by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group, made up of 66 semiconductor manufacturers, that lowered its global sales estimates to a 2.2% drop in 2009, to $256 billion.
“The first evidence the semiconductor industry was entering a recession arrived in the third quarter, before the financial crisis began sweeping the world in October,” said Dale Ford, senior vice president, market intelligence services for iSuppli. “iSuppli previously had predicted the third quarter would generate 7.9% growth in semiconductor revenue compared to the second quarter. However, actual growth in the third quarter came in at a very anemic 2.5% quarter-to-quarter rise. Year-over-year revenue in the third quarter was down by 2.9%.
“Weak-to-strongly-negative growth was reported in the third quarter by the complete range of semiconductor suppliers, large and small, across all markets,” Ford noted.
Memory suppliers are suffering the most severe declines, with the overall market expected to drop 8.8% compared to last year.
Numerous semiconductor suppliers are reducing their fourth-quarter outlooks on an increasingly frequent basis, says iSuppli. This would seem to indicate there is a strong possibility the fourth-quarter decline and the overall 2008 results could fall even further than iSuppli now forecasts.
“In discussions with semiconductor suppliers, equipment OEMs and contract manufacturers, a story of fear and great uncertainty has emerged,” Ford said. “As dramatic declines in consumer and industrial confidence began developing in late summer, order cancellations began to grow and in many cases, slowing orders degenerated into a complete stop in orders as players across the supply chain moved to extremely cautious positions in the face of increasingly negative economic news.
“The psychology of many industry players now has shifted to a survival mentality, with cost-control and cash-conservation considerations driving decisions, according to the firm. The extremely low level of consumer confidence points to a difficult fourth quarter for the industry. The remaining questions are how deep and how long this decline will extend in 2009 and possibly 2010.”
EL SEGUNDO, CA – After years of double-digit annual growth, China's 2008 semiconductor sales are expected to rise only 6.7% year-over-year to reach $81.7 billion, iSuppli Corp. predicts.
China’s domestic market situation improved in 2008, despite regulatory restrictions and an incomplete supply chain, says the research firm. Popular applications supporting new domestic standards will appear in 2009 as their industrial ecosystems mature. Although there is substantial economic uncertainty, continued revenue growth is anticipated in 2009, according to iSuppli.
Moreover, venture capitalists generally lack interest in China's IC industry. A majority of semiconductor firms are short of capital and face cash flow problems.
“iSuppli expects more than 100 Chinese IC companies to disappear within the next two years,” warned Vincent Gu, China research analyst at iSuppli. “Many companies presently are seeking buyers, and a total of four companies already have been acquired by foreign semiconductor firms during the past 12 months.”
iSuppli predicts China's fabless IC industry will grow faster than the foundries, but notes it is fragmented, with about 50 successful companies and dozens more struggling to survive.” Most companies have announced layoffs, cut production lines or have shut down entirely,” Gu said.
