NEW YORK --  A leading semiconductor analyst says expected 2014 sales growth is 8.4% year-over-year, lower than last month's forecast of 11.9%. Mike Cowan is basing his updated estimate on March global semiconductor sales as reported by the WSTS, which came in at $331.335 billion. 

March's actual global semi sales, which were released last week, were in at $28.095 billion, much lower than Cowan's LRA Model projections of $31.116 billion.

"This lower actual sales number for March (compared to its forecast) corresponds to the model’s monthly momentum indicator, MI, of -9.7%," Cowan said.

The MI has gone negative following a five-month string of positive momentum indicators, signaling a potential turning point in the sales growth trend consistent with March’s drop in 2014’s sales growth forecast. 

Additionally, March 2014’s year-to-date cumulative sales growth came in at 11.4 percent when compared to last year’s equivalent YTD cumulative sales number of $70.449 billion. Finally, the model’s April 2014 actual global semi sales expectation is projected to come in at $24.857 billion which corresponds to a calculated three-month moving average, 3MMA, sales forecast estimate of $26.098 billion which is normally reported by the SIA as part of its monthly published Global Sales Report, GSR, press release

The Cowan LRA Model’s forecast is calculated and updated each month, reflecting the latest, actual global semiconductor sales numbers released by the WSTS each month. For more information on the Cowan LRA Model, see this a slide presentation here.

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