FRAMINGHAM, MA – Worldwide PC shipments are now expected to fall 7.8% in 2013, according to an updated forecast from International Data Corp.

The new forecast reflects a shift in PC buying trends as users increasingly consider alternatives such as delaying a PC purchase or using tablets and smartphones for more of their computing needs. In place of a limited decline of 1.3% in 2013 followed by a gradual increase in volume, the new outlook calls for a more substantial decline of 7.8% in 2013 and 1.2% in 2014 with shipment volume reaching only 333 million in 2017 – below the 349 million shipped in 2012 and the peak of more than 363 million shipped in 2011.

The updated forecast reflects the significant drop in volume during the first quarter of 2013 as well as the transitions happening in PC design as vendors bring products to market that are optimized for Windows 8, including more thin, convertible, touch, and slate models.

"Many users are realizing that everyday computing, such as accessing the Web, connecting to social media, sending emails, as well as using a variety of apps, doesn't require a lot of computing power or local storage. Instead, they are putting a premium on access from a variety of smaller devices with longer battery life, an instant-on function, and intuitive touch-centric interfaces. These users have not necessarily given up on PCs as a platform for computing when a more robust environment is needed, but this takes a smaller share of computing time, and users are making do with older systems," IDC said.

IDC expects to see some replacements happen in 2014, particularly in the commercial segment as support for Windows XP expires. However, the commercial market has been conservative with replacements, focusing on individual systems more than large upgrade projects. In addition, workers at many companies already have portable PCs with adequate configurations. The motivation to buy a new system due to falling prices or to switch from a desktop to a portable PC is contributing less to market growth than it did in the past.

"In addition, the BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) phenomenon has moved from smartphones to tablets and PCs with nearly 25% of employees in organizations larger than 10 people claiming to have purchased the primary PC they use for work," said Bob O'Donnell, program vice president, Clients and Displays. "This means that some of the corporate PC purchases we expected this year will no longer happen."


PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2012-2017 (in millions)

Region

Form Factor

2012

2013*

2017*

Emerging Markets

Desktop PC

94.9

86.6

82.1

Emerging Markets

Portable PC

110.4

106.9

127.5

Emerging Markets

Total PC

205.3

193.5

209.6





 



 



 



Mature Markets

Desktop PC

53.4

47.8

41.8

Mature Markets

Portable PC

90.6

80.6

82.0

Mature Markets

Total PC

143.9

128.4

123.8





 



 



 



Worldwide

Desktop PC

148.3

134.4

123.9

Worldwide

Portable PC

200.9

187.4

209.5

Worldwide

Total PC

349.2

321.9

333.4

 

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarter PC Tracker, May 2013

* Forecast data

PC Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2012-2017

Region

Form Factor

2012

2013*

2017*

Emerging Markets

Desktop PC

-3.9%

-8.7%

-1.1%

Emerging Markets

Portable PC

0.4%

-3.2%

6.0%

Emerging Markets

Total PC

-1.6%

-5.7%

3.1%











Mature Markets

Desktop PC

-4.8%

-10.5%

-3.4%

Mature Markets

Portable PC

-8.6%

-11.0%

0.1%

Mature Markets

Total PC

-7.2%

-10.8%

-1.1%











Worldwide

Desktop PC

-4.2%

-9.3%

-1.9%

Worldwide

Portable PC

-3.9%

-6.7%

3.6%

Worldwide

Total PC

-4.0%

-7.8%

1.5%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarter PC Tracker, May 2013

* Forecast data

 

 

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