New technology provides constructive ways to keep afloat in a sinking economy.
So with the economy in shambles and monthly statistics showing that the electronics industry has seen far better days – and may soon see far worse days – what is your “Plan B”?
Typically, companies only think about planning as the new fiscal year approaches, but sometimes, it is prudent to be thinking of alternative plans midcourse. That being said, I was recently at an industry gathering, discussing individual and collective Plan Bs with some colleagues. I discovered that many had no alternative plan, and an overwhelming majority felt that we are at the mercy of a fickle economy.
I started my career over 30 years ago, working for a major connector company. The company had a long history, with humble beginnings connecting power and transmission lines for utilities, as the country – and world – was electrified. From there, the company miniaturized to pin and socket connectors and ultimately to what we called edge card connectors. I can remember the CEO of that company lamenting about how, “Today, we connect circuits, not discreet wire.” Those were heady days, with patents flying all over the place, as the company worked diligently on its Plan B to shift away from the core electrical industry into the new emerging world of electronics.
It was during this time that the company I currently head had its own humble beginnings. At the time, IMI stood for “Integrated Memory Incorporated” and was a memory card manufacturer. IMI also had scads of patents and made a great product, but when technology shifted from cards to chips, it implemented its “defensive” Plan B and became a circuit board fabricator. Over the past 30 years, the company has, on several occasions, adapted its strategy, as the economy and industry have required.
This is all fine and good, but how does it affect you? Well, at the same industry gathering that generated so little enthusiasm for how a Plan B might positively impact individual companies and the macro industry, there were some great examples of how a paradigm shift (or paradigm shifts) may be taking place that could offer exciting Plan Bs for many in our industry – if they pay attention. Some examples are as follows:
Printed Electronics – This is a personal favorite. For years, I have been less worried about the migration of our industry to China Inc. than the probability that some guy will develop a replacement technology in his garage somewhere in Middle America. In fact, such an innovative technology seems to be emerging. Utilizing common laser inkjet printing technology, the applications that printed electronics can accommodate may be in their infancy but are growing exponentially. Combine that with a relatively low threshold to entry, and for those who seek a path – so far – less traveled, printed electronics may offer the same growth and profit potential that printed circuit boards did way back in the 1960s and 1970s. This is a technology worth looking at and investigating as a viable Plan B.
Solar/Photovoltaics Technology – For those who still have larger, automated facilities and are feeling the seemingly never-ending pricing squeeze from China Inc., this might be your best Plan B. As everyone has experienced, energy costs are at historical highs, and that means that alternative energy sources are in demand. Add that to the overall “green” mood of most countries, as well as the technology explosion in Photovoltaics, and you have a sizable growth industry that requires capacity. As exciting as printed electronics, solar technology demands larger footprint capabilities and is equally poised for expediential growth. An additional bonus is that the current economic stimulus package includes considerable funding for solar installations, giving Photovoltaics a solid shot in the arm. Again, another technology worth looking at and investigating as a viable Plan B.
Are these two suggestions too far out for you? Well, there is a technology that is already established but waiting for discovery in North America. That technology is HDI. One of the biggest problems with HDI is that nobody seems to want it, but everyone is using it! I am always amazed that when I’m with a customer reviewing the technology roadmap and ask if he plans on incorporating HDI, the answer is almost always no! But, the next design shown to me is for 4 mil vias, sequential lamination and 3/3 lines/spaces. That IS HDI; the customer just doesn’t know what HDI really is! The technologies that we refer to as HDI are well-established in mass consumer products such as cell phones, which are produced in low-cost regions of the world. However, in the ruggedized environment of medical and military electronics, the demand for HDI technologies is huge and growing exponentially. This emerging market is here–now! The technology is well understood, and your current customer is most likely going to be your future customer. Once again, this is a technology worth investigating as a viable Plan B.
So, if you step back and look at the non-conventional, there are Plan Bs everywhere, but, with any paradigm shift, you have to be ready to change and to embrace the unknown. So, if you are not happy with the economy and believe our industry is in trouble – consider the possibility of pursuing one of these three Plan Bs – not to mention all the other ones floating around, just waiting to rescue you.
PCD&FPeter Bigelow is president and CEO of IMI (www.imipcb.com);
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