LEATHERHEAD, SURREY, UK -- The printed circuit board industry has reached a turning point, as growth in China is mitigated by dips in other major electronics-consuming regions.

A series of charts showing demand for semiconductors, electronics equipment and purchasing manager outlooks has led research firm BPA to forecast 3% growth in 2012 for the global semiconductor market, followed by 10% growth in 2013 and a slight decline in growth in 2014.

The semiconductor 12/12 (year-over-year) growth curve has always been a good indicator of the state of the industry with the 2001 dotcom crash and the recession of 2008/9 clearly delineated as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1 also shows how using 12/12 growth curves enables one to distinguish a trend that may not be possible using 1/12 growth which is the growth compared with the same month in the previous year.

Figure 1. Semiconductor 12/12 growth.

Looking at the 12/12 growth curve, it is possible to see that the industry is now at the bottom of the mainly eurozone crisis-led recession of 2011-12. The growth curve shows how the normal recovery period following the 2008-09 depression been disrupted by the ongoing eurozone crisis, as well as the natural disasters in Japan and Thailand in 2011.

Semiconductor demand is dependent on electronic equipment demand and Figure 2 shows 6/12 electronic equipment growth curves in key production regions. The chart also includes BPA's forecast of electronic equipment demand. While growth in China electronic equipment production has slowed, the PMI remains largely above 50 (for the electronics industry) and that growth also remains positive. In all other regions, growth dips below zero to a greater (Japan) or lesser (Germany) extent.

Figure 2. Electronics equipment production actual and forecast 6/12 growth curve.

Figure 3 shows the semiconductor 12/12 growth curve extended to 2016 using BPA's forecasting methodology. BPA anticipates that the industry will recover through 2013 and start to decline again in 2014 followed by a boom in 2015-16.

Figure 3. Semiconductor demand, 12/12 growth actual and forecast.

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