SANTA CLARA, CA – Total TV shipments are forecast to remain flat in 2011, holding at 248 million units on lower-than-expected LCD sales, according to DisplaySearch.
The research group lowered its forecast based on lower business targets from TV manufacturers and lower-than-expected demand for key TV components during the peak procurement period leading into the holiday season.
“Demand in regions like North America and Europe has fallen short of expectations, as persistent economic problems have made consumers cautious in their spending and highly value-seeking,” said Paul Gagnon, director of North America TV research for DisplaySearch. “Emerging markets continue to show good growth, but it is not strong enough to counteract the weaker demand in developed markets, and as a result, we have lowered our unit forecasts for LCD and plasma TV.”
Although total TV unit demand for 2011 looks to be flat, shipments of flat panel TVs, including CRT and rear projection technologies, will increase about 6% year-over-year, and then improve to 9% in 2012 as the premium for advanced features continues to fall and manufacturers bring low-cost solutions to emerging markets in an effort spur faster replacement of CRT TVs.
LCD shipments will rise from 192 million in 2010 to 206 million this year, less than the previous forecast of 211 million and a key reason the overall TV market forecast was reduced. LCD TVs account for more than 80% share of all global TV shipments. “LCD TV supply chain participants – panel makers, OEMs, and TV brands – have all lowered their outlook for 2011, despite a recent drop in LCD panel prices,” said Gagnon. “Long-term, we continue to forecast annual growth in demand for LCD TVs, although generally we expect less than 10% growth each year.”
A growing share of new premium features, like LED backlights and 3D, are helping keep the LCD TV category average prices very stable in 2011, falling just 7% year-over-year on a volume-weighted basis. However, with the slower unit growth, total LCD TV revenues are expected to be flat this year. After increasing slightly in 2012, revenues should begin a gradual decline beginning in 2013. The forecast share of LED backlights in LCD TV shipments has been reduced slightly to 46% in 2011, but is still expected to become the dominant backlight technology for LCD in 2012 and reach nearly 100% of shipments by 2015.
Plasma TV unit growth started slowing in the second quarter this year, down 6% year-over-year, and is now expected to see a double-digit unit shipment decline each quarter through the middle of 2012. Because LCD TV prices are falling more quickly than plasma TV prices, the gap in pricing is narrowing and share is shifting away from plasma and toward LCD at several sizes. For example, in the second quarter of 2010, a 42" 1080p plasma TV was 32% cheaper than a competitive 42" 1080p 120 Hz LED LCD TV, but that gap fell to just 9% by the same quarter in 2011. Total plasma TV unit shipments are expected to fall 9% in 2011 to 17 million units and around 5% to 6% each year thereafter.
OLED TV is set to debut around late 2012 as a contender in the 40"+ category, but will only grow to about 2.5% of the 40"+ segment by 2015 due to high prices and limited availability. Current projections are for OLED to debut at about two to three times the price of a high-end LED-backlit LCD TV.
Emerging regions (China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) will have the strongest flat panel TV growth over the next four years, averaging 11% growth each year, while developed regions decline an average of 1% each year. The Asia Pacific region is positioned for strongest growth, as the late-adopting India market begins to boom, says DisplaySearch.
The worldwide forecast for 3D TVs was slightly increased through unexpected growth in emerging markets and Europe, although North America is growing slower than expected. 3D TVs are expected to account for 11% of total TV shipments in North America, but 14% of Western Europe and 12% of China TV shipments. Eventually though, North America will lead 3D adoption due to stronger preference for 40"+ sizes. 3D TV is expected to account for just over 22 million in 2011, rising to more than 100 million shipped by 2015.
