LOS ALTOS, CA – The short-term surge in semiconductor orders are tied to an uptick in electronics equipment demand coupled with depleted inventorie, but reluctant consumers and tight credit will slow any recovery, an industry analyst said today.

The global semiconductor market will grow 8% next year after an 18.1% plunge this year, Ed Henderson of Henderson Ventures. He forecasts 2011 will see a 10.6% gain. Contrary to other analysts, Henderson believes memory will outstrip other product categories during 2010 and 2011. 

"Companies up and down the supply chain have dumped inventory in an effort to conserve cash," said Henderson in his monthly newsletter, issued this weekend. "Consumers and corporations have adopted more conservative spending philosophies, which will undercut potential equipment purchases. And so will more-restrictive credit standards being applied to a wide spectrum of potential information technology customers."

According to Henderson, restrained economic recovery, sluggish equipment markets and weak chip pricing will undercut the semiconductor rebound. "It will not be until after 2011 that market values will exceed those of 2008."

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