SAN FRANCISCO -- After strong shipment growth in 2008, PCs may be headed for a dip in 2009, a top Deutsche Bank analyst said today. The credit market and deteriorating macro outlook are the culprits, says Chris Whitmore.

"We expect a difficult PC environment in 2009. We estimate industry-wide PC unit growth of 6% year-over-year and flat revenue growth," Whitmore wrote in a research note today.

Both figures are declines from this year, when unit growth is forecast to be up 11.5% and revenues up 5%.

"We expect the frozen credit market and deteriorating macro outlook to translate into weakening PC demand due to the highly discretionary nature of PC upgrades in developed markets, both consumer and corporate. In addition, we expect ASP pressure to accelerate in 2009 as a result of mix, consumers trading down and incremental price competition, somewhat offset by more favorable commodity pricing."

Demand in emerging markets, which DB estimates have been responsible for roughly 70% of the industry's growth this decade, could also slow materially.

DB forecasts global GDP to grow 2% in 2009. The firm expects the lower GDP growth to show up in smaller corporate IT budgets and delayed PC upgrades. At the consumer level, higher unemployment, and reduced household wealth could tamp down demand.
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