NEEDHAM, MA – Worldwide smartphone shipments are set to grow 1.0% year over year to 1.24 billion units, according to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, an upgrade from its prior 0.6% outlook, driven by a 3.9% rise in iOS.

“While tariff volatility adds uncertainty, for most vendors it’s background noise,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC. “Growth in the US (3.6%), Middle East & Africa (6.5%) and APeC ex-China (0.8%) should offset a 1% decline in China as subsidies fade and macro headwinds persist.”

Even with modest unit growth, vendors are prioritizing value: IDC expects 5% ASP growth and 6% market-value expansion in 2025 as OEMs lean into slimmer designs, on-device GenAI, foldables, and camera upgrades, supported by promotions and interest-free financing. “We forecast over 370 million GenAI smartphones shipping in 2025, about 30% share, with capabilities cascading into mid-range devices and becoming table stakes by 2029,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC.

IDC adds that foldables are maturing as durability improves and prices ease; the category is projected to grow 6% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 11% in 2027, yet remain under 3% of shipments by 2029. The firm maintains a 2024–2029 shipment CAGR of 1.5% and notes that the current US tariff exemption on smartphones preserves the total addressable market.

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