SCOTTSDALE, AZ – IC Insights raised its worldwide IC market growth forecast for 2017 to 11%, more than twice its original 5% outlook on an improved outlook for DRAM and NAND flash memory.

IC Insights currently expects DRAM sales to grow 39% and NAND flash sales to increase 25% this year, with upside potential from those forecasts. DRAM market growth is expected to be driven almost entirely by a 37% increase in the DRAM average selling price compared to 2016, when the DRAM ASP dropped 12%. Moreover, NAND flash ASPs are forecast to jump 22% this year after falling 1% last year.

In April 2016, the DRAM ASP was $2.41 but rapidly increased to $3.60 in January, a 49% jump. A pickup in DRAM demand from PC suppliers during the second half of 2016 caused a significant spike in the ASP of PC DRAM. Currently, strengthening ASPs are also evident in the mobile DRAM market segment, says IC Insights.

With total DRAM bit volume demand expected to increase 30% this year, and DRAM bit volume production capacity forecast to increase 20%, IC Insights believes quarterly DRAM ASPs could still surprise on the upside in 2017. Furthermore, DRAM output is also being slowed, at least temporarily, by the ongoing transition of DRAM production to ≤20nm feature sizes by the major DRAM producers this year.

At $57.3 billion, the DRAM market is forecast to be by far the largest IC product category in 2017, exceeding the expected MPU market for standard PCs and servers ($47.1 billion) by $10.2 billion this year.

Spurred by a 12% decline in the DRAM ASP in 2016, the DRAM market slumped 8% last year. The DRAM market shaved two percentage points off of total IC industry growth last year. In contrast, the DRAM segment is forecast to have a positive impact of four percentage points on total IC market growth this year. Total IC market growth rate forecast for 2017, excluding DRAM and NAND flash markets, would be 4%, about one-third of the current worldwide IC market growth rate forecast including these memory devices.

• Prev
• Next