OYSTER BAY, NY -- The global advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) market will grow 29% compounded annually over the next decade, a new report forecasts.

The ADAS market will reach $132 billion by 2026, up from $11 billion by this year’s end, ABI Research says.

“Vulnerable user detection system shipments, including pedestrian, animal, and cyclist detection, will exhibit strong growth over the next decade, with a 49% CAGR,” says James Hodgson, research analyst at ABI Research. “The growth will primarily be driven by OEMs seeking to develop more robust autonomous emergency braking systems that will be effective in a greater number of driving scenarios.”

To date, vulnerable user detection (VUD) has been a hallmark of the more sophisticated autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systems offered on premium vehicles—often conflated with night vision systems. However, much of the future growth will be accounted for by mass market OEMs employing camera-radar sensor fusion to expand the types of obstacles their AEB systems can detect, often employing windshield-mounted smart sensor modules to lower cost. Current examples include the proliferation of the Honda Sensing and Toyota Safety Sense packages on high volume models.

The overall market, however, shows limited opportunity for night vision systems. ABI Research anticipates shipment growth within this category to slow toward the end of the forecast period, with the market value peaking in 2025 at just over $10 billion.

“The system costs are still too high for mass market vehicles, with infrared sensors priced significantly higher than radar and camera sensors,” says Hodgson. “Within the next decade, the focus will migrate away from augmenting driver perception, and toward sensors that can enable autonomous control for both navigation and emergency collision avoidance. Therefore, there will be a limited need for car OEMs to provide a system that allows the human driver or car occupant to see in the dark.”

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