OYSTER BAY, NY -- Tablet shipment volumes are tumbling, and could fall by nearly one-third in the next five years.

While the total tablet volume in 2015 was more than 207 million, ABI Research expects this to sink below 140 million global shipments in 2021, a drop of 32%, says ABI Research.

The research firm attributes the general decline over the past two years to two culprits. Demand for branded tablets in advanced market economies is decreasing due to saturation, slow replacement cycles, greater influence of business purchases, and substitution. China and other Asian markets are also seeing decreased demand for white box tablets due to shifts to branded tablets, as well as reliance on smartphones and phablets.

“China is evolving, moving away from white box products to support local and global brand manufacturers,” says Jeff Orr, Research Director at ABI Research. “As this behavior continues across other markets in Southeast Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America, the potential for white box tablets to remain viable will all but go away.”

Global Weighting of Total Tablet Shipments (%)

Future tablet shipments show an interesting shift in market dynamic, with major advanced economies taking a back seat in shipment totals. “The major, advanced economies of the world represented close to 63% of branded tablet shipments in 2015,” said Orr. “This will soon flip. We predict that, by 2021, 57% of branded tablet shipments will come from emerging and developing economies.” 

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