Predicting the future is tricky, especially when we don’t yet know the players.

With over 40 years of new business development and marketing experience in the electronics manufacturing marketplace, no sales team requirement produces more dread, apathy or frustration than when we hear, “It is time for your new business forecast for next year.” Contract negotiations, board meetings, airplane travel after 9/11, Covid-induced supply-chain issues, dealing with your cable company and dental appointments; none of these compares to the angst sales leaders experience when forecasting new business from new clients they hope to win and have no current business relationship with.

Is there a less exact science to any required report or activity for salespeople than forecasting clients with whom you have no historical relationship and are competing against other EMS companies to win? Let’s examine some of the truths behind this requirement.

When we consider some of the variables that can affect an accurate, next-year new business forecast, it seems staggering:

Leveraging local and state stakeholders for future growth.

One positive of the last election is that the Trump administration is pro-US manufacturing and is considering tax incentives to reward companies that manufacture in the US and tariffs to punish countries restricting US-made goods. That creates both opportunities and challenges for the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industry.

Tariff policy is definitely a looming challenge. The earlier China tariffs had the net effect of driving production to Mexico since components imported into Mexico were typically not subject to tariffs and could be reimported without duties once transformed in Mexican-made products. That may change, as Chinese companies have invested heavily in Mexican manufacturing to avoid tariffs. Tariffs may also impact the attractiveness of facilities in countries subject to them.