NEEDHAM, MA – IDC this week sharply reduced its global smartphone shipment forecast to 0.6%, down from 2.3% projected earlier this year. The downgrade reflects growing economic uncertainty, tariff volatility and weakening consumer demand.

The market research firm now expects total smartphone shipments to reach 1.24 billion units this year. The longer-term outlook remains cautious, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increased market saturation, longer device refresh cycles and a growing secondary market for used phones.

Despite the challenges, growth will be driven by China and the United States. China is forecast to grow 3% year-over-year, bolstered by government subsidies supporting Android brands. Meanwhile, Apple is expected to see a 1.9% decline in shipments.

In the US, IDC lowered this year's forecast to 1.9% from 3.3% due to the continuing trade war with China and concerns over potential new tariffs.

Analysts warn that further tariff increases of 20% to 30% on non-US smartphones could present serious downside risks. India and Vietnam are expected to remain key manufacturing alternatives as OEMs navigate ongoing geopolitical and supply chain challenges.

• Next