TAIPEI – The persistence of a rally in memory prices during 2024 will largely depend on suppliers' ongoing and effective control over their capacity utilization rates, TrendForce reported in its latest analysis.

The downswing of DRAM contract prices, which had lasted for eight consecutive quarters, was finally reversed in the fourth quarter of 2023. Likewise, NAND Flash rebounded in the third quarter after four quarters of decline.

According to TrendForce Senior Research Vice President Avril Wu, the first quarter of this year is already shaping up to be a season of growth, with TrendForce confirming its initial projections: a hike of around 13-18% QoQ for DRAM contract prices and a hike of 18-23% for NAND Flash contract prices.

Despite a generally conservative outlook for overall market demand in the second quarter of 2024, suppliers in both DRAM and NAND Flash markets have begun raising their capacity utilization rates since the end of 2023. Furthermore, NAND Flash buyers are anticipated to complete their inventory restocking in advance in the first quarter. Due to the rise in capacity utilization rates and earlier restocking efforts, leading to a more moderated QoQ price increase of 3-8% for both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices for the second quarter.

As for the third quarter, the period will see the arrival of the traditional peak season, and North American CSPs are expected to become more energetic in restocking key components. DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices could continue to climb and show a wider QoQ increase of 8-13% if suppliers keep their capacity utilization rates below 100% (i.e., they are still not operating at fully loaded capacity). In the DRAM market, the rising DDR5 and HBM penetration rates will further push up the overall ASP, thereby widening the QoQ increase in contract prices.

Finally, in the fourth quarter, the general price rally is anticipated to continue if suppliers maintain an effective strategy for controlling output. DRAM contract prices are forecasted to increase by about 8-13% QoQ. It should be noted that the increase in DRAM contract prices will be primarily due to the rising market penetration of DDR5 and HBM products. However, looking at individual products or product types, such as DDR5, QoQ declines are a possibility. This means that the general rally of DRAM contract prices during 2024 reflects changes in the product mix rather than an across-the-board rise for all types of DRAM chips. As for NAND Flash products, their contract prices are forecasted to increase by 0-5% QoQ for the quarter.

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