HERTFORDSHIRE, UK – Tin use contracted 5.4% in 2019 to 359,200 tonnes and is expected to decline a further 5.9% in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the International Tin Association.
However, some sectors benefitted from the pandemic, the association says. A new survey of 121 companies accounts for some 48% of estimated global refined tin use in 2019, with findings as follows:
Data indicates a stronger than expected third and fourth quarters for China recovery.
Refined tin stocks held by surveyed companies at the end of 2019 amounted to the equivalent of three weeks’ supply. If this ratio is extrapolated based on global consumption, it implies world consumer stock holdings were around 21,000 tonnes. Compared to data from 2018 and forecasts for 2020, consumer stocks dipped in 2019; forecasts for 2020 suggest consumers are rebuilding stocks.
Provisional estimates of total global tin use, including refined and unrefined forms, totaled 427,400 tonnes in 2019, down 5.8% from 2018. The recycling input rate was 30% in 2019 and is forecast to fall slightly to 29.2% in 2020.
Solder still accounts for the largest global share of tin use, increasing slightly to 49% in 2020. Forecasts for 2020 indicate a global average decline of 8.1% related to the Covid-19 pandemic, with China being more positive. Some electronics use sectors were boosted by increased working and education from home. Electronics supply chain restructuring accelerated by the pandemic, as well as rising geopolitical tensions, were a major focus for respondents. Most saw major opportunities for solder growth in future 5G-related markets.
The average proportion of lead-free solders in electronics grew to 77% globally in 2020, up from last year. Seventy-two percent of specified tin use globally in lead-free solders was <100ppm Pb. The trend toward higher purity, lower lead specifications in tinplate continued in 2019, as 45% of refined tin used was <50ppm Pb, up from 35% in 2018.
In chemicals, tin use by survey participants declined 3.4% in 2019 and will fall 9.2% in 2020. China markets were particularly impacted by the pandemic, with more positive feedback from the US, where markets are being boosted by residential construction related to an exodus away from cities.
Tinplate use continued a long-term trend of being static or in decline, falling 6.7% in 2019. However, 2020 use was forecast by participants to increase 7% in 2020 due to increased consumer canned food purchasing during the Covid-19 pandemic, especially outside China. Price still pressures tin use in this otherwise static market, with some competition from alternative packaging challenging growth.
Lead-acid battery tin use survey data saw little effect of the pandemic, growing 2% in 2019 and 3% in 2020. Battery use was boosted for several reasons during the pandemic. Use in E-bikes in China is a significant proportion of tin use, where competition from lithium-ion has not yet had a significant effect and could be reversed by the public choosing not to use public transport. Further tin use growth is expected as conversion to start-stop cars and trucks requires high performance.
Tin use in copper alloys and other metal product markets declined 6% in 2019, with further decline of 10% forecasted for 2020. The sector was hit hard by Covid-19, especially affected by automotive, engineering and giftware sectors. Respondents were especially uncertain about future prospects, although increased use in float glass in China boosted 2020 forecasts.
