The first quarter of 2014 is now in the history books, and industry sales for the first month were sent to me recently. Listed below is a summary of these data compared to last year.
Sales usually decline in January compared with December’s business, and this year followed that trend. January revenue from printed circuits was down for most of the industry in almost every country comparing month to month. Unfortunately, December was down compared with the previous month, so it looks like that trend continued in 2014.
Let’s compare the same months year over year. Taiwan, the global leader in the printed circuit industry, squeaked out a 0.46% increase comparing January 2014 to January 2013; however, January 2014 is the fourth month in a row to post a decline. The loosing streak continued during February partially due to the nation wide lunar New Year vacation.
Printed circuit manufacturers are not very optimistic with their forecasts for the remainder of the year. Personal computer sales continue to weaken, and that is the number one product that is supplied by Taiwanese printed circuit manufacturers. The PCB demands from smart phones and tablet PCs continue to rise, but their growth rates are not as robust as in the past.
Revenue from the printed circuit industry in North America was down by 7.5% in January compared to the same month of the previous year, and down by 16.9% from the previous month. Incoming orders that will fill the pipeline for the second quarter also declined during the first month. Sales from the printed circuit industry were down, but other segments did show increases. The electronics industry in North America that includes semiconductors, mainframe computers and EMS also showed a decrease comparing the same months year over year.
Revenue from the Japanese printed circuit industry declined 7.6% in January compared with the previous month, and volume declined by 4.2%. On the other hand, the Japanese printed circuit industry posted a 5.7% increase from the same month of the previous year and a 7.4% increase in volume.
Could this be a sign of a rebound? Unfortunately, no. Shipments in January 2013 were at the lowest level in one of the worst years, so comparing the increase in January 2014 to the same month last year not a great victory. The Japanese manufacturers cannot be optimistic next one or two quarters at least.
The data suggest that the majority of the global printed circuit industry is struggling, and it is hard to determine how long this recession will run. The slumping consumer electronics industry in Japan continues to overshadow any recovery for the PCB industry. Are we in the middle of the recession, or near the end? Tough to predict, but we cannot expect a turnaround in the sort term. The government is extremely optimistic with economic growth in the near future. Most of this optimism is fueled by the booming financial market. Unfortunately, electronics manufacturers and printed circuit manufacturers do not share the same expectations.
Dominique K. Numakura,This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
DKN Research Newsletter #1408, April 6, 2014
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Headlines of the Week
1. JAISTdeveloped a new design procedure of fuel cell materials. It provides a higher efficiency and lower costs.
2. Mitsubishi Chemicaldeveloped the world first large scale wall-setting solar generator unit with organic thin film photovoltaic cells for ZEB (Zero Energy Building).
3. Panasonicdeveloped a new solar power generation package “Power Supplier Container” for developing countries.
4. Toyota Motorscodeveloped the world first “Car to Car Recycle System” for copper metals of wire harnesses.
5. Nikoncommercialized a new Rayfact lens with 90mm diameter image circle for inspection equipment of FPD and PWB.
6. NGK Insulatorsdecided to commercialize bonded hybrid wafers for SAW filters and wavelength conversion element for green laser.
7. Toshibaunveiled the smallest CSP package for white light LED with 130 lm/W. Package size: 0.65 x 0.65 mm.
8. Mitsubishi Materialsdeveloped a new high performance DBA (Direct Bonded Aluminum) substrate with silver coating baked for power modules applicable for HV automobiles.
9. TELstarted a business for inkjet printers codeveloped with Seiko Epson for manufacturing of OLED.
10. Panasonicrolled out the smallest pitch flex circuit connector series (0.35mm pitch) for wearable devices and portable devices.
11. ASE willfound a JV for TSV 3D IC packaging with Inotera Memories. Initial capacity will be 10k units/month.
