EL SEGUNDO, CA – China’s automotive electronics revenue in 2008 expanded by 11.7%, down 23 points from 2007, according to iSuppli Corp.
Production of automotive electronics equipment in China amounted to $13.6 billion in 2008, up 11.7% year-over-year. While the market expanded, this represented a major decline in growth from the 34.7% rise in 2007. The automotive electronics equipment area consists of portable navigation, infotainment, power train, safety and control, comfort and convenience, body electronics, security systems and other functions.
“This deceleration in 2008 mainly resulted from the poor performance of the automotive infotainment segment,” said Isaac Wang, industry analyst for China Research at iSuppli. “In 2007, automotive entertainment represented 48.7% of China’s overall automotive electronics market. This portion shrunk by 2.8 points in 2008. A rapid decline in international equipment orders put many of China’s automotive electronics suppliers in a difficult situation.”
Nevertheless, navigation applications maintained high growth, says the firm.
In 2008, portable navigation device revenue increased 29.7%, while in-dash navigation applications rose 19.3%. Many Chinese car owners already have adopted electronic navigation as an integral part of their new driving lifestyles. This trend will boost telematics players, especially those supporting intelligent transportation system applications.
Because of the international economic recession in 2008 and into 2009, the global automotive electronics industry will not rebound until after 2010. iSuppli expects it will not climb back to its revenue height until 2012.
Fortunately, the situation in China is not as serious, says the firm. Although the nation’s auto electronic equipment annual growth rate is set to drop again in 2009, it will remain positive at 6.5%.
This relatively stable performance enhances China’s position in the global market. China’s share of the global automotive electronics market revenue was 13.5% in 2008, and is expected to rise to 18.1% in 2012.
China’s market will play a critical role, and international firms will expand their presence and activities in the nation.
Competition will be much greater in China with leading multinational firms, such as TRW and Lear, which have done well in the global market, but have not been so successful in China thus far. Many new domestic entrants also are expected, mostly in the infotainment segment.
China’s automotive infotainment market saw two major changes during 2008: There was a greater focus on OEM customers and on the domestic market.
The export market accounted for more than 62% of all Chinese-made automotive infotainment products in 2007.
However, in 2008, the sudden arrival of the financial crisis in the US triggered mass international order cancellations. Chinese equipment vendors suffered severe losses and the export market fell sharply, says iSuppli. Exports contracted 8.6% last year. As a share of China’s automotive infotainment market, exports have decreased to 41%.
Infotainment products targeting the aftermarket used to account for 69% of the overall total in 2007. However, the economic woes of 2008 negatively impacted international consumption. The aftermarket shrank to a 60% share at the end of 2008.
“Amid these rapid changes, the most outstanding automotive electronics firms are not the largest or strongest ones, but those players who are making the most positive and decisive responses,” Wang said. “Companies need to quickly adopt the most suitable business models as market and general economic conditions shift.”
China’s automotive electronics market is immature and applications are developing at different rates. In certain segments, such as low-end infotainment, superfluous products are common. Meanwhile, in most other segments, supply still lags demand, sometimes by a wide margin. For new market entrants in China’s automotive electronics industry, it is important to find market segments or product niches with less competition, Wang noted. Where the gap between demand and supply is larger, market conditions will be more favorable and potential profits will be higher.
EL SEGUNDO, CA – Global shipments of displays for mobile handsets are expected to decline more than 6% in 2009 and remain flat in 2010, as worsening economic conditions continue to impact the wireless industry, says iSuppli Corp.
iSuppli forecasts the mobile handset display market will decline to 1.5 billion units in 2009, down 6.2% year-over-year. Shipments will rise by a marginal 0.3% in 2010. The market won’t recover to exceed the 2008 level until 2011, when shipments will reach 1.65 billion units.
“The handset display market already was struggling in 2008 due to declining average selling prices and dwindling margins,” said Vinita Jakhanwal, principal analyst for mobile displays at iSuppli. “However, the downturn now is beginning to impact unit shipments, leading to revenue declines for the industry this year and next.
“The decreasing replacement rate for handsets due to deteriorating economic conditions will be the main cause for the market downturn. New handset demand from the emerging countries will not be sufficient to offset this decline.”
Beyond the slowdown, a major buildup in inventories of finished handsets will make the decline more severe in the beginning, says the firm. Indications of an inventory correction already had a major impact on the industry in the fourth quarter.
In response to this, handset display shipments from the top suppliers declined more than 40% sequentially in the fourth quarter.
During the current quarter, demand is expected to shore up slightly because of demand associated with the Chinese New Year, driven by domestic Chinese handset makers and the top-tier cellphone brands, according to iSuppli.
The mobile handset market has been characterized by declining display prices over the last few years. This mainly has been a result of the expansion of TFT-LCD capacity, as new investment has enabled newer generation fabs to meet the expanding demand for monitors, notebooks and LCD TVs.
Despite the economic slowdown, mobile-display panel pricing for all screen sizes and technologies is expected to maintain its historical annual decline rate of 15% to 20% this year. iSuppli believes the ASP decline in 2009 won’t be as severe as it was in 2008 for some specific panel types. Most suppliers have implemented capacity cuts and reduced their fab utilization rates in response to the slowing demand. This will help mitigate some of the more precipitous declines in prices, says the firm.
Despite decreases in pricing and declines in shipments, it is unlikely that top-tier customers will have difficulties procuring panels in 2009. With the current cuts in capacity utilization, the level of oversupply in the small/medium TFT-LCD industry may shrink, but it is doubtful any shortages will occur. When suppliers see orders increasing, they can ramp up production again easily.
It won’t be an easy 2009 for small/medium TFT-LCD mobile handset display suppliers, and 2010 will be only marginally better. However, if the suppliers can withstand the price cuts, volume reductions and capacity utilization drops, they should be positioned for a turnaround in 2011, iSuppli believes.
