SAN FRANCISCO -- After strong shipment growth in 2008, PCs may be headed for a dip in 2009, a top Deutsche Bank analyst said today. The credit market and deteriorating macro outlook are the culprits, says Chris Whitmore.
"We expect a difficult PC environment in 2009. We estimate industry-wide PC unit growth of 6% year-over-year and flat revenue growth," Whitmore wrote in a research note today.
Both figures are declines from this year, when unit growth is forecast to be up 11.5% and revenues up 5%.
"We expect the frozen credit market and deteriorating macro outlook to translate into weakening PC demand due to the highly discretionary nature of PC upgrades in developed markets, both consumer and corporate. In addition, we expect ASP pressure to accelerate in 2009 as a result of mix, consumers trading down and incremental price competition, somewhat offset by more favorable commodity pricing."
Demand in emerging markets, which DB estimates have been responsible for roughly 70% of the industry's growth this decade, could also slow materially.
DB forecasts global GDP to grow 2% in 2009. The firm expects the lower GDP growth to show up in smaller corporate IT budgets and delayed PC upgrades. At the consumer level, higher unemployment, and reduced household wealth could tamp down demand.
SAN JOSE – Although set-top boxes have been around in one form or another for more than 30 years, the industry is far from settled, says iSuppli Corp. STBs should remain one of the most dynamic areas of the electronics industry for at least the next decade, and quite possibly beyond, according to the research firm.
Over the next few years, expanding box capabilities will drive much of the STB market. For millions worldwide, HD and DVRs are becoming such a part of consumer lives that by 2012 more than 70% of digital STBs shipped are expected to integrate support for one or both of these technologies, up from about 35% in 2007, says iSuppli.
“DVRs are cheap to integrate into STBs because hard disk drive costs have plummeted,” said Jordan Selburn, principal analyst for set-top boxes for iSuppli. “With the street price of storage just pennies per gigabyte and falling daily, the time is not far off when video storage hardware, whether at home or remote, will be both essentially limitless and virtually free.
“HD falls into a similar category as DVRs,” Selburn said. “HD video processing chips are migrating to 65-nm semiconductor manufacturing technologies, causing their incremental costs to drop compared to standard-definition devices. HD display prices are falling rapidly as well. iSuppli forecasts that more than 125 million of these displays will ship in 2008, and customers will demand HD content to watch on their new televisions.”
With a perfect storm of lower-cost HD technology, increasing HD content and greater high-speed Internet access, HD will become the mainstream resolution by 2012, says iSuppli. This is likely to be a one-time transition, however. While companies are beginning to develop the so-called quad definition displays with twice the resolution of HD, most consumers will never need to adopt this technology.
The STB evolution won’t stop when HD and DVRs become the norm, however. In the long term, media hubs and home gateways are destined to supplant today’s one-box-per-set approach. Not only will this lower costs, it will enhance the user experience by serving video to all displays in a home from a centralized location, says the firm.
TAIPEI -- Asustek Computer will postpone the planned hirings of some 1,500 workers in response to the slowing economy, according to published reports.
In today's newsletter, DigiTimes reports Asustek has instituted "a high standard to inspect its human resource demands in each department." The company, DigiTimes said, "will continue on schedule with its personnel plan for next year, so it does not really consider itself as having a hiring freeze."
Asustek is one of the world's largest PC manufacturers and its ODM revenues rank it third in the world.
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Unisem Group has started volume shipment of packages using copper wirebonding technology.
Integrated Device Technology thin shrink small outline packages integrate Unisem’s copper wirebonds for a range of applications, including clock devices for desktops and notebook PCs.
“IDT recognizes the traction copper has gained as an interconnect material in semiconductor packaging. The clear advantages of copper – better performance and higher electrical test yields – helped convince us and our customers of the strategic benefits we would receive by using copper wire,” said Anne Katz, vice president of worldwide assembly and test for IDT.
By 2009, 30% of Unisem’s wirebonders will be set up for copper, the company says.
SHENZHEN -- Huawei, one of China's largest electronics OEMs, took its cellphone manufacturing group off the market, saying the world financial situation must first be resolved.
EL SEGUNDO, CA – iSuppli Corp. has trimmed its forecast for 2008 worldwide semiconductor revenue growth, and is warning of a significant potential downside if economic conditions continue to worsen.
Global semiconductor industry revenue is expected to rise to $280.1 billion this year, up 3.5% compared to 2007. iSuppli’s previous forecast, issued in August, predicted 4% growth for the year.
The U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association this month reported global semiconductor sales rose 5.5% in August compared to a year earlier, indicating chip sales growth continues to track according to iSuppli’s expectations. However, signs appeared in September that the semiconductor market may be feeling the impact of the credit crisis and economic downturn.
“The credit crisis is impacting the semiconductor market on several levels,” said Dale Ford, senior vice president, market intelligence, for iSuppli. “The first level is demand for electronic equipment from the Wall Street firms themselves, which is expected to drop and thus decrease demand for semiconductors. The second level, and a much more significant factor, is the impact on corporations in general. With companies unable to get credit, the crisis could spread to the wider economy, impacting demand for electronic equipment and semiconductors. The final level, and the most significant area of impact, is the broader effect on consumer confidence and spending if the overall economy collapses.”
In its latest 2008 semiconductor forecast, iSuppli has significantly downgraded its outlook for memory revenue, particularly DRAM. iSuppli lowered its 2008 semiconductor memory revenue forecast 5.8 percentage points, and its DRAM outlook 5.4 points.
With memory expected to account for nearly 10% of global semiconductor revenue this year, this represents a major drag on global semiconductor revenue, the firm says.
However, iSuppli significantly boosted its forecast for global application specific standard product semiconductors, compensating somewhat for the memory forecast downgrade. The research firm raised its 2008 ASSP revenue forecast 3.2 percentage points for the year.
However, new signs of weakness have mounted in the DRAM market in recent times. iSuppli in September cut its rating of near-term conditions for DRAM suppliers to negative, down from neutral. Long suffering from a glut of parts, the DRAM market began to note a weakening in demand from the key PC market in September, according to iSuppli.
PC demand continued to defy the economic downturn through the second quarter, and the firm remains cautiously optimistic regarding sales through the remainder of the year.
iSuppli now predicts 12.5% growth in PC unit shipments in 2008. However, the company has noted some weakening in demand from PC makers since the start of September.
