PALO ALTO, CA – VR headset shipments are expected to exceed two million units worldwide in 2016, according to Canalys. This number is forecast to grow to 20 million by 2020.

The lion’s share of 2016 shipments is basic VR headsets that rely on other devices, generally being tethered by cable to a desktop PC, says the firm. Shipments of smart VR headsets, which can function independently, will reach over 100,000 units. These estimates only include VR headsets with integrated displays.

Sony has become the VR market leader, says Canalys, with its PlayStation VR catering to the PlayStation 4 installed base. Canalys expects more than 800,000 shipments in fewer than three months on the market.

“Though some believe Sony has de-prioritized promoting VR in favor of the standard or Pro PlayStation 4s, it is not worth investing in major marketing campaigns while current supply remains sold out,” said Canalys analyst Daniel Matte. “Sony should push VR more forcefully when supply constraints ease, especially as promising titles such as Farpoint and Golem are launched.”

While Sony has not significantly marketed PlayStation VR during the holiday sales period, Black Friday and Cyber Monday’s $100 discounts helped increase sales of HTC’s Vive in the US, says Canalys.

HTC will ship around half a million units in 2016, putting the Vive in second place. Facebook’s Oculus Rift, meanwhile, is currently getting a boost from its long-awaited Touch motion controllers and will reach almost 400,000 shipments this year.

“Over 300,000 VR headsets are estimated to ship in Greater China in 2016,” said Canalys analyst Jason Low. “HTC has led the charge, while local vendors, such as Deepoon, Idealens, 3Glasses and ANTVR, have provided their own unique innovations and localization efforts that are vital for the massive Chinese market. Business model experimentation is especially important to monitor due to unique economics and the sheer speed of development.”

Some expected products from large vendors were delayed until 2017, leaving significant room for growth. “The VR market has barely begun, and Canalys believes it will take several years to ramp up,” said Low. “There are encouraging signs of consumer adoption and positive customer satisfaction, however, especially among gamers. Many billions of dollars of research and development are needed to continue advancing VR technology, form factors and software to further grow the industry.”

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