The trend in Japanese PCB manufacturing is optimistic and aggressive.

The Semiconductor Industry News has been reporting 2006 forecasts and investment plans of the major circuit board manufacturers in Japan (Table 1 [PDF format]).

The current demand situation of the printed circuit industry in Asia has not been very clear for a while now. Despite this uncertainty, most major PCB manufacturers in Japan have been forecasting double-digit growth for 2006 - very different from last year when single digits ruled. Ibiden, NOK and CMK all expect billion-dollar revenues this year. Fujikura and Shinko Electric forecasted slightly smaller revenues, but they also expect remarkable increases compared to last year's results.

We should pay attention to these companies' aggressive investment plans as they relate to revenue forecasts for 2006. Many Japanese manufacturers are expecting stable long term growth.

Based on their investment programs we can conclude that IC substrates and flexible circuits need relatively large investments to keep up with forecasted production volumes.

May PWB Production in Japan

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released May production data for Japanese printed circuit board manufactures. The revenue data is listed in Table 2 [PDF format].

May 2006 did not show significant increases over April 2006; however, year to date comparisons between May 2005 and May 2006 do reveal considerable gains for all categories. Some categories experienced exceptional double digit gains. Industry revenue for May compared to April increased by 2% to 74 billion yen. Revenue for April 2006 increased by 18.4% compared to April 2005. Modest industry growth was sustained through April 2005 compared to April 2006 (+ 4.9%); however, May volume slipped 0.1% from the previous month. May's volume shipped totaled almost 2 million m2 of PCBs. All rigid circuit board categories had double digit growth compared to last year, with the exception of single side circuits. Double side circuits and high layer counts boards were the standouts in growth.

Flexible circuits are not having a banner year, but they are showing an increase in revenue compared to last year. Since they posted double digit declines from 2005 compared to 2004, this could be considerable turn around. Double sided circuits and multi-layer flex were near double digit growth. Single side flex did not have a strong year. If the current trend continues however, flex production for 2006 will have a positive growth.

JEITA released the June shipment data for consumer electronics in July. The total revenue was 230 billion yen, an 8.5% growth compared to the same month of 2005. The industry showed continuous growth in the last 11 months.   PCD&M

Dominique Numakura is president of DKN Research; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

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