TAOYUAN CITY, TAIWAN – Global PCB output value in 2023 will total $73.9 billion, representing a decline of 15.6% from 2022, but is expected to rebound in 2024 to total $78.2 billion, according to estimates from the Science and Technology International Strategy Center of the Industrial Technology Research Institute.
In China, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, among Chinese-owned plants, their relatively low proportion of substrates, as well as strong growth in automotive applications, meant they outperformed the global average with a decline of just 9% for the year. Korea had the highest proportion of substrates with most concentrated in consumer electronic memory applications so experienced a decline of more than 20%, and while substrates accounted for a significant proportion of the industry output in Japan and Taiwan, their relatively balanced product mix as well as the support of automotive applications meant the level of decline fell somewhere between China and Korea.
Because of the lower base period of 2023, 2024 should bring stronger growth for the electronics industry as a whole. The restocking of inventories should also see the PCB industry enter another cycle of growth, and while consumer demand will need more time for a positive feedback cycle to reestablish itself, it may still benefit from upgrades to some products. Once consumer market growth approaches that of the global economy, the global PCB industry output should begin sustaining 4-5% long-term growth.
Due to the low base period in 2023, the overall electronics industry will feel higher growth momentum in 2024, and the PCB industry is also expected to usher in the next growth cycle due to inventory replenishment. Although it will take time for overall consumer demand to return to a positive cycle, it can still benefit from the improvement in the specifications of some products. It is estimated that global circuit board output value will rebound to US$78.2 billion in 2024, an increase of 6.3% compared with 2023. Waiting for the overall consumer market to The growth momentum is gradually approaching the global economic performance, and the growth rate of global PCB output value will also return to the long-term average level of 4% to 5%. TPCA and ITRI Institute of Obstetrics and Technology (ISTI) believe that it is difficult for end product sales to grow significantly without killer applications. Therefore, technology and product generation changes have become growth drivers. For example, the development of advanced packaging has expanded the demand for carrier boards, and autonomous driving continues to Driven by the increase in the price of automotive PCBs, and AI applications that will heat up hard boards, these will be products that have a significant impact on global PCB output value. In addition, carbon-neutral electronic products are coming to the market, and the pressure to reduce carbon emissions in the supply chain has greatly increased. For the electronics industry supply chain, there is no suspense about adapting to the general environment to reduce carbon emissions. The only difference lies in the intensity of pressure from customers and government regulations. Take Apple (Apple) as an example. It has achieved the goal of carbon neutrality in global corporate operations in 2020 and has also launched the "Apple 2030" strategy, requiring the entire value chain to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 and reduce carbon emissions by 75% compared with 2015. % of carbon emissions. Apple’s carbon reduction process is also reflected in new products launched in 2023, such as the first carbon-neutral Apple Watch Series 9. Under the pressure of global carbon reduction, it is expected that customer requirements will continue to increase in the future, and solutions will be more actively sought from the perspective of the supply chain. Therefore, 2030 can be regarded as a test for the supply chain, which will not be able to keep up by then. Companies that slow down their pace of carbon reduction are bound to face elimination. (News source: Industrial and Commercial Times)
