LOS ALTOS, CA -- Computer equipment production will see a lukewarm recovery, rising 6.1% in 2010 and 9.7% in 2011.

However, the seasonal uptick in demand -- gone in 2008 -- is expected to return this year, says research firm Henderson Ventures.

"While the financial crisis depressed shipments during the final three months of last year, this year, the traditional holiday bump is expected to reappear," Henderson wrote in a note research today. "And even though our forecast calls for fairly small quarter-to-quarter gains during the last three months of this year, year-to-year growth rates will be substantial."

The firm predicts the the US market will rise 20% and global shipments to jump 10.4% during the fourth quarter.

During 2010 and 2011, global PC growth rates will accelerate as demand for replacements rises, partially fueled by the well-received Microsoft System 7 operating system and the release of Office 2010 due next spring, Henderson said. China will lead the way, with a growth forecast of  12.2% in 2011.

Still, 2011 output will be below that of 2007, says Henderson. 

Overall, Henderson forecasts a 5.1% increase in US PC shipments for 2009, ahead of the 0.5% worldwide uptick. The firm credits delayed replacement cycles, pointing to gains of 0.2% and 4.7% in 2008 and 2007, respectively.