China’s DRAM Market Tries to Shake Off Olympic Blues
Published: 11 September 2008
by Staff
EL SEGUNDO, CA – China was hoping for an economic boost from the Summer Olympics, but the event actually had the opposite effect on the nation’s DRAM market, plowing a trough in demand right before the all-important holiday season, according to iSuppli Corp.
With China’s attention focused on the event, third-quarter DRAM shipments in the nation are expected to post virtually no growth sequentially, falling short of expectations, says the research firm.
With China’s attention focused on the event, third-quarter DRAM shipments in the nation are expected to post virtually no growth sequentially, falling short of expectations, says the research firm.
However, while iSuppli believes DRAM demand will begin to recover sharply at start of the pre-holiday ramp, the industry still faces significant inventory, suppressing prices. In the spot memory market, pricing for 1Gbit DDR2 DRAM dropped by a stunning 18% during the week of Sept. 1. iSuppli expects a severe price erosion for the entire month of September. Because of this, it’s a great time to buy DRAM in China, according to the firm
“The games clashed with the traditional summer promotional season for PCs in China, with many consumers glued to their TVs and absent from stores,” said John Lei, analyst, memory ICs and storage systems for iSuppli. “This caused sales momentum to slow. Furthermore, all the IT equipment required for the Olympics was purchased years before the event, meaning there was no Olympic boost for DRAM demand.”
Even before the Olympics, consumer PC demand in China was already facing economic headwinds because of rising inflation, says iSuppli. Beyond this, China’s government engaged in stricter imports control during the Olympics, causing purchasing activity on the DRAM spot memory market to decline.
With the conclusion of the Olympics and the impending start of the holiday season, consumers should start buying more PCs, driving domestic demand for DRAM, says the firm.
Furthermore, China’s consumer price index began to decline in the second quarter and is likely to continue to decrease throughout the second half, reducing inflationary pressures and encouraging consumers to spend.
With most construction and provisioning of national IT facilities completed prior to the Olympics, most PCs now in use at these operations are at least two to three years old. These systems will need to be replaced or upgraded, particularly with the 60th National Day events to be held in 2009.
Also, fast-growing Chinese Internet service companies will be upgrading their systems as they expand their operations to attract more customers. Rather than buying new equipment, many companies are likely to take a cheaper route and upgrade the DRAM in many of their systems, iSuppli predicts.
Regardless of the third quarter, China remains one of the most vibrant markets for DRAM in the world. National PC penetration per family is only at about 55%, which means computer and DRAM demand will continue growing in the future. Much of the growth will be in lower-cost white box PCs, whose sales growth is expected to outperform the branded computer segment in the coming years.
As a result, iSuppli predicts China’s DRAM market will avoid a downturn.
