TOKYO -- The JPCA Show is typically not one where many orders are placed on the floor. Rather, specifications are discussed, tires on equipment are kicked, materials are introduced, and the exhibition of evolutionary progressions is the norm. And yet, equipment suppliers were in many cases optimistic.
 
In fact, the annual trade show and gathering of technologists, managers, suppliers, fabricators, EMS providers and OEMs at Tokyo Big Sight was again a resounding success. Having visited a number of Asian fabricators, EMS providers and suppliers beforehand, I was able to establish a baseline for activity at the show. With the Asian electronics interconnect industry experiencing a slowdown of 10-15% since the first quarter, concerns over oil and basic raw material prices, the US economy and other factors were evident. But, showing an underlying optimism, managers at bare board manufacturers were in the unusual position of seeing orders for equipment placed at a number of exhibitor stands at the show.
 
Attendance was steady with last year, but with the addition of the Protec assembly show to the traditional PCB fabrication wares, it is obvious that overall, companies are sending fewer, but perhaps more key personnel. With pressure on profit margins and sales down, those who attended were highly focused.
 
On the fabrication side, orders for drilling systems, wet process equipment, fabrication systems, and other critical production tools worth millions of dollars were placed with both large and small suppliers.
 
The recent insolvency of Mania GMBH cast a pall over many companies trying to determine the effect on CAD and CAM users. Mania’s UCAM CAD/CAM software package has significant market share and its demise would portend greater use of Genesis and ODB++, which would tend to favor Orbotech and Valor. The concern here, as some noted, is the potential for a monopoly and a monolithic set of design rules. The drama will play out over the next several months with a small but highly interested audience. However, this could affect every manufacturer in the industry.
 
More North American companies than in several years past sent representatives to see if the buzz on so many of these processes is, in fact, true. DDI, TTM Technologies, M Flex and OneSource Group sent senior technologists to investigate advances in processes, materials and equipment. Much of the discussion centered on demand for HDI interconnects from North American OEMs and EMS providers. Wireless applications are the bedrock, but certainly not the sole driver. As demand is defined, more opportunities will become apparent. However, without a deeper and more complete understanding of the opportunities in design, cost reduction and performance, these opportunities will continue to elude the North American manufacturing base.
 
Another notable trend was participation of a greater number of the printed circuit manufacturers and assemblers themselves. In addition to the many Japanese companies exhibiting circuit boards and specialist manufacturing processes and applications, they have joined by several European, South Asian, and Chinese suppliers as well. While Ibiden, Eastern, CMK, NEC, Dai Nippon Printing and other Japanese leaders have always considered the JPCA Show a critical part of their marketing and sales strategies, PWB and EMS companies such as Ruwel Werke from Germany and the multinational Somacis Group are also making great strides in market penetration. Ruwel has focused on automotive and rigid/flex, while Somacis offers a wide range of services from plants throughout Europe and China.
 
A number of discussions centered on effects of EU’s REACH environmental regulations and the manner in which they are implemented. Exclusionary policies in the decision-making process by the European Union, as well as some of the decisions made so far by the EC, have chemists, industrial environmental managers, technologists and managers at the highest levels either scratching their heads or in simmering revolt. When the proposed solution is both more environmentally hazardous and expensive than preexisting standards, the motivations and capabilities of those responsible for those decisions must be questioned and challenged. IPC in the US, among others, has challenged some of these decisions. The question on many minds is, Is politics trumping the scientific method and good engineering practices?
 
R&D on basic and highly innovative technologies continues on its own track. The smart companies, as well as universities and research institutes, are continuing to invest in the long term, and the future is bright. Research into nanotechnologies with direct effects on high density interconnect manufacturing is substantial, and small glimpses of products in their infancies were offered. These include new inks; metallic compounds with interesting new properties; and ultra fine-line particle capability – a focus for laminate additives. Faster and higher frequency signal speeds, lower electrical resistance processes, and improved signal integrities will all enable many other complementary features to improve package integrity and performance. There is a trend toward higher performance dry-film photoresists in packaging substrate and high performance applications. In Japan, dry film has remained the preferred photoresist for many of the same properties, for which it was developed in 1968 by Jack Celeste at DuPont.
 
Because a significant percentage of Japanese PWB manufacturers are involved in packaging substrate manufacturing, equipment that in many cases has limited applicability for general multilayer or flex circuit manufacture was featured by leading-edge suppliers. Direct imaging systems with the advantages of improved overall image quality, local scaling, and ultra fine-line capabilities was on display at a number of suppliers. One demonstrated a system said to be capable of producing 140 20" x 24" panels per hour in primary imaging applications. At close to $2 million per unit, the market may be limited, however. Special purpose lamination systems for multilayer flex circuitry and packaging substrates are also in demand.
 
The embedded components arena continues to expand with applications entering wider use, and as processes for passive and active embedded devices and chip sets are refined, this will build the knowledge base that allows more widespread demand. Several OEMs in test and inspection, wireless applications, base stations, and other applications are playing close attention. The progression from digital watches to wireless handsets to more sophisticated applications is inexorable. In North America, much work is being done in the military and aerospace arenas, where visibility is purposely limited.
 
The global supply chain was present in depth, and the Protec side of the exhibition was very busy. Booths were crowded, and while some manufacturers are holding out product introductions for InterNepcon (the more traditional site for debuts), Protec represented an excellent opportunity to investigate performance, price and process compatibility. In inspection, it seems the number of vendors continues to increase, while there are rumblings of consolidation in the pick-and-place market. Maintaining profitability is the key, and with more competition this becomes more difficult. In materials, the rose-colored glasses on users’ noses continue to interfere with a realistic assessment of true market conditions. Increases in the cost of key raw materials of 20, 30, 50, even 200%, while process materials and component prices remain stable are but a temporary panacea as the supply base struggles for market share. Fundamental economic realities dictate that this will continue only so long before there is a major crash in the supply base and a shift in the power equation to fewer suppliers, which are able to enforce a pricing structure that permits profitability and that attracts the returns on investment necessary for a healthy industry.
 
Engineers, scientists and especially the managers funding and directing R&D must be completely in tune with the advantages, pitfalls, and opportunities of new technologies. With the hollowing of American industry, this is a critical national policy issue that is still is beyond the understanding of the political class, Wall Street and senior management at almost every major American corporation. A deep, thorough understanding of the means of production is an absolute requirement for progress, and stagnation equals death. It is the Achilles heel of the American economy, and someone at a much higher pay grade than your humble reporter must awake to the fact there is now a very small top-tier in North America capable of delivering those technologies, while the vast majority remain mired in the rut churned 30 years ago by the industry pioneers, some of whom were still on the floor at JPCA trying to stem a tide of indifference. PWBs of 12-18 layers multilayers can be built anywhere in the world, in most cases at lower cost and more efficiently linked to the market. When, for example, the Taiwanese printed circuit industry moves en masse into a new market such as Vietnam, bringing with it the entire supply chain, the end is near for those building “me too” product.
 
Hope and despair, drama and comedy, courage and cowardice, fear and joy: the range of human emotion was on display. One just had to view the surroundings with a little perception and unblinking eyes to watch the drama (or is it comedy?), unfold. Next year’s edition, themed Innovation for the Next Dream, will be held from June 3-5. Same JPCA time, same JPCA place!
 
 
Special Editorial to PCD&F by Matthew Holzmann, president of Christopher Associates