Change is demanded to head off further commoditization and ensure future innovation.

The iNEMI Roadmap 2007 edition will be available this month, providing a more global perspective than any previous iteration. During this roadmap cycle, we consciously targeted participation from key organizations in Asia and Europe to help ensure that the technology projections truly represent a global view. As a result, more than 500 individuals from 265 companies, consortia, government agencies and universities located in 17 countries on four continents contributed to this roadmap. We also continued our strong links with other international roadmapping organizations, such as ITRS, IPC, IEEE/CPMT, IMAPS, INSIC, JIEP, SCC and OIDA.

The roadmap covers 19 technology and infrastructure areas (Figure 1) and five product sectors (Table 1 [PDF format]), identifying future research, development and implementation needs required for the worldwide electronics industry to grow. The iNEMI roadmap is published every two years, and each edition looks 10 years out; thus, there is always an eight-year overlap with the previous version. Therefore, each edition, 1) confirms that trends are still headed the way we thought they were, 2) identifies new trends, shifts, emerging technologies, etc.

FIGURE 1. The 2007 Roadmap's Technology Working Groups.

This, the second in a series of articles about the 2007 Roadmap, highlights research and development needs, paradigm shifts, strategic concerns and key recommendations.

The commodity phase. The electronics industry has matured to the point that many product segments are now in the commodity phase of their lifecycles. Accordingly, breakthrough technology may no longer be sufficient to ensure business success. Customers are demanding the right solution at the right cost from winning enterprises. This maturation drives a series of business behaviors quite different from the past.

The industry is completing a major restructuring, moving the center of manufacturing competence from OEMs to EMS providers and ODMs. The increasing scope of outsourced operations requires loosely coupled business processes spanning multiple companies. This changing business model has led to significant shifts in roles and responsibilities across the supply chain, and to a shortage of manufacturing R&D, which could precede a slowdown in growth. Companies have to weigh their options carefully for collaboration and differentiation.

At the same time, dramatic movement of manufacturing and manufacturing support to China from North America, Europe and other Asian countries has been prompted by a low-cost, highly skilled workforce and a massive market opportunity. This migration of capabilities is far from over, as we see increased activity in countries such as Vietnam and India, for example. While local presence is often a benefit for meeting unique market requirements, local decision-making is also useful to respond quickly and decisively. This can strain overall enterprise investment resources and can lead to duplication of effort or lower ROI.

Increasing regulation. Legislation impacting manufacturing and recycling is being enacted throughout the world. Manufacturers are being required to remove materials of concern, such as lead, from their products, which means they must adapt product designs and convert manufacturing processes, often at considerable cost. Manufacturers are also required to share detailed material content data of their products and components, which is especially challenging given the increasingly distributed nature of the supply chain and the proliferation of unique green requirements from OEMs.

Although the industry has quickly moved toward lead-free, a number of manufacturers – those that produce high-reliability products – continue to use leaded components, creating a dual supply chain. The need to support lead-containing and lead-free bills of materials is a significant challenge to the supply chain and is requiring increasing investments.

Product convergence. The boundaries between computers, communications and entertainment products are blurring. Large, flat panel displays continue to experience rapid growth and lower cost. Wireless products, particularly WiFi and Bluetooth, are now widely used, and digital cameras are standard in cellphones.

Home and office capabilities are being added to automotive products. RFID systems are used for security and increasing commerce efficiency. Telecom and datacom infrastructure needs are converging. With the move to all-digital communications and storage, we see a number of markets converging: medical-consumer, automotive-entertainment, communication-entertainment and computing-entertainment.

Table 2 [PDF format] shows certain market growth estimates. Worldwide production of computers and office equipment continues to be the largest segment of the $1.2 trillion electronics industry, accounting for more than one-third of overall equipment production. Continued growth in all segments of the electronics industry means more new products, greater use of electronics and ongoing technology investments.

Technology reverberations. The projected end of traditional semiconductor scaling continues to generate significant reverberations in approaches and structures of computing systems. The first consequence is the gradual but certain reduction of emphasis on the microprocessor frequency metric, and the corresponding increase in importance of the system’s throughput metric. This shift in system performance will generate an increased demand for higher bandwidth to and from the microprocessor. Another consequence of the expected demise of traditional semiconductor scaling is the increased need for improved cooling and operating junction temperature reduction due to large leakage currents and increase in chip power.

Unlike previous editions, the 2007 Roadmap does not identify a major need for optical transmission within high-performance PCBs during the next decade. In earlier editions, for example, it appeared that optoelectronics would be used in high-performance PCBs, but that hasn’t happened because of the improving performance of the traditional technology. (Creative use of copper traces and dielectrics continues to be able to meet product needs at much lower cost.)

The huge volume of, and revenues generated by, portable products is driving technology breakthroughs. System-in-package (SiP) continues to be one of the fastest growing packaging technologies, although still representing a relatively small percentage of the unit volume. According to Prismark Partners’ estimates, 3.54 billion SiPs were assembled in 2006; the firm expects 6.65 billion devices by 2010, an average growth rate of about 17% per year. RF SiP applications have become the technology driver for small components, packaging, assembly processes and for high-density substrates. Li-ion and Li-ion polymer electrolyte batteries have become the dominant rechargeable energy sources across the entire portable segment.

More attention is being focused on the user experience with products. Displays still represent one of the primary ways people interface with their electronics systems. LCD and plasma displays are taking over the CRT market, while OLED (organic LED) has the promise of providing thin, lightweight – even roll-up – display technology that could compete with LCDs and make wearable electronics prolific.

Data requirements continue to grow at a rapid clip, driven by consumer and Internet demands, creating an ongoing desire for density and performance improvements for data storage. A number of alternative approaches to today’s established data storage technologies are expected to develop during the next decade. These include magnetic random access memory (MRAM), probe-based, molecular, fluorescent multilayer optical, near-field optical and 3-D holographic storage components and systems.

The 2007 iNEMI Roadmap identifies needs and trends in several areas. Many of these trends already affect electronics manufacturing and the way it does business, while others could have significant impact in the near future. Highlights of some of these trends are discussed next.

Design technologies. Through several cycles, the iNEMI Roadmap has warned that design and simulation tools are the main roadblocks to more rapid introduction of new technologies by OEMs and ODMs. If anything, this situation has worsened with the increased OEM focus on time-to-market and the complexity of emerging technologies and products. The industry needs significant development and investment in design tool infrastructure, with increased R&D in the following areas:

• Mechanical and reliability modeling.
• Co-design of mechanical, thermal and electrical performance of the entire chip, package and associated heat removal structures.
• Simulation tools for nano-devices and materials.
• Improved design tools for emerging technologies, such as embedded passives and optoelectronic PCBs.
• Integrated design and simulation tools for RF modules and devices.
• Electronics manufacturing simulation and modeling tools for the designer.
• At the same time, a critical need among EMS providers is for standard design tools for manufacturability, test and assembly to increase manufacturing productivity and reduce costs.
  

Manufacturing technologies. With R&D responsibility shifting from OEMs, government, academia and industry consortia need to formulate new ways to adopt and develop emerging technologies (such as nanotechnology) into the manufacturing process. These approaches will have to be consistent with viable business and funding models required to create new industrial infrastructures. Without methodologies to conduct R&D in a distributed environment, new technologies such as those listed below will experience protracted development delays or will not reach maturity and wide-scale deployment. Two major strategic needs drive the roadmap’s recommendations in manufacturing technologies: the miniaturization of products and the need for simplified, next-generation assembly processes. Development, then, is needed in areas such as:

• Process development, to accelerate miniaturization such as automated printing, dispensing, placement and rework equipment capable of very fine pitch requirements.
  
• Advanced board assembly processes that support 3-D structures and low-temperature processing.
  
• Demonstration of the application of low-temperature and room-temperature attachment technologies to SMT assembly, including biomimetic-based dry adhesive technology.
  
• Creative test methodologies that lead to lower testing costs, particularly for new non-digital technologies.
  
• New approaches to organic substrate fabrication that address needs for dramatic increases in density, reduced process variability, improved electrical performance and radical reductions in cost.
  

Materials development. For the physical realization of electronics, ongoing improvements in materials are critical to all levels (i.e., semiconductor, package, interconnect, etc.) to ensure future density, cost and performance targets are met. Technology research needs have been identified in a number of diverse areas such as:

• Low-cost, higher-thermal-conductivity packaging materials, such as adhesives, thermal pastes and thermal spreaders.
• Next-generation solder materials to replace high-cost/high-temperature Ag-containing alloys.
• New interconnect technologies deploying nano-materials to support decreased pitch and increased interconnect frequencies.
• High-performance, competitively priced laminates.
• Clearer specifications for new materials supported by a broad base of customers to increase market size and reduce risk for materials R&D.
  

A combination of materials and fabrication research is needed to support development of monolithically integrated optics and electronics that take advantage of the electronics infrastructure.

Energy and the environment. As society becomes more socially conscious and traditional energy sources are depleted, investments in energy and the environment will inevitably increase. At the same time, proliferation of requirements at the local, country and regional levels create a significant challenge to global enterprises and will inevitably lead to slower improvements to sustainability. A number of challenges face our industry as we struggle to work with a diverse and expanding set of stakeholders. Progress must be made on a number of fronts:

• Consumers are increasingly concerned about impacts electronics products may exert regarding safety, energy usage and environmental impact. Industry must proactively address these concerns.
• Develop and implement scientific methodologies to assess true environmental impacts of materials and potential tradeoffs of alternatives.
• Be more involved in policymaking so that policymakers understand tradeoffs inherent in material substitution.
• Fund a multi-stakeholder project to conduct environmental lifecycle assessment and economic analyses with the goal of identifying a preferred e-waste recovery and recycling system.
• Develop cost-effective, energy-efficient power supplies.
• Harmonize environmental regulations for electronics through international standardization.
• Fuel cell systems, lithium-metal/SPE technology and thin-film batteries have the potential of providing high energy density and specific energy. Further R&D on these technologies is recommended.
• Develop advanced cooling systems, such as high-performance heat pipe, thermoelectric cooling technology and direct liquid cooling technology.
  

Many of the roadmap chapters identify paradigm shifts now taking place, and potential shifts that might occur. This information is critical for infrastructure providers to identify where non-linear changes may arise in the future. These changes provide both opportunities and risks for individual firms.

The need to continuously introduce complex, multifunctional products to address the converging markets identified in 2004 has continued to favor the development of functional, modular components, or SiP. This paradigm shift in the design approach increases flexibility, shortens the product design cycle and places the test burden on module producers.

The standard platform movement afoot in telecom is helping address the disrupting and disaggregating of both the design and supply chain. This movement could accelerate the introduction of new functions by making them easier to do. Further, it could create efficiencies and opportunities for higher volume niche operations such as circuit faceplates, thermal solutions or CAD templates. Telecom, computing, IT and military sectors are affected.

Flash memory has become the mass storage medium of choice for many mobile applications, such as digital still cameras, MP3 players and cellphones, because of its low cost (in lower capacity points than hard disk drives) and greater ruggedness than alternative storage devices. Flash memory – in the form of USB flash drives – has also replaced floppy disks as the universal transfer medium, and appears poised to play an important role as write cache memory in hybrid hard disk drives for mobile applications.

The industry restructuring during the past decade from vertically integrated OEMs to a multi-firm supply chain has resulted in a disparity in R&D needs vs. available resources. As Table 3 [PDF format] illustrates, critical R&D needs exist in the middle of the chain (IC assembly services, passives, EMS assembly), yet these firms are the least capable of providing these resources. A partial solution: the emergence of vertical teams to develop critical technology under shared-cost arrangements. Mechanisms for cooperation among industries and researchers working in all advanced technologies must be strengthened. Cooperation among OEMs, EMS providers and component suppliers is needed to focus on the right technology and to find ways to deploy it in a timely manner. For example, the disaggregated supply chain is leading to non-optimized packaging solutions and delaying technology introduction. Disruptive technology offers opportunity for innovation. To ensure success, the supply chain must be willing to invest with a long-term perspective in mind.

The electronics industry faces many challenges in the decade ahead. The changing industry structure, with its shift in roles and responsibilities, has serious ramifications for investments in manufacturing R&D, and we must find ways to ensure continued development, or face slowdowns. We must address technology gaps in critical areas such as active device technology, thermal management, communications bandwidth, next-generation packaging technology (miniaturization), design and simulation tools, and science-based environmental improvements. Creating product markets with social value will help drive growth in areas such as energy, healthcare and security.

In the year ahead, iNEMI will turn attention to mining the 2007 Roadmap to understand where industry collaboration can begin to address these challenges for the benefit of all. PCD&M

Ed.: The 2007 iNEMI Roadmap will begin shipping March 5. For ordering information, visit inemi.org/cms/roadmapping/roadmaporder.html.

Jim McElroy is CEO of the International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) (inemi.org); This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..