EAST FISHKILL, NY -- A longtime analyst predicts flat semiconductor sales growth this year, below the forecasts of some competing research firms.

Mike Cowan, a 37-year veteran of IBM, says that based on the WSTS’s global semiconductor sales figure for May of $22.92 billion, his model forecasts total global semi sales of $299.84 billion. That translates to sales growth of 0.11%, or essentially flat, down slightly from the previous month's forecast estimate of 0.33% growth.

WSTS and the Semiconductor Industry Association forecast 0.45% growth for the year, while IDC predicts 4.6% growth.

Cowan's LRA (Linear Regression Analysis) Model, which forecasts global semiconductor sales, is a mathematically based model that features statistical analysis of the past 28 years of historical, monthly global semiconductor sales numbers that are collected and published by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization. It is a dynamic, mathematically pure view of near-term worldwide semiconductor sales looking forward over the next four quarters.

June's actual sales forecast estimate is expected to come in at $27.65 billion.