FRAMINGHAM, MA – While the first half of 2012 is expected to see only modest shipment growth, the launch of Windows 8 and the excitement generated by ultrabooks and other ultra-thin notebooks should drive second half sales in a much stronger way, according to International Data Corp.

The boost, plus continued demand from emerging markets, bumped IDC's 2012 PC growth forecast to 5%, with most of that growth occurring in the latter half of the year.

Worldwide PC shipment growth for 2011 ended on a slightly positive note, up 1.8% for the year. For much of 2011, vendors struggled to maintain consumer interest in a market beset by a tenuous economic recovery and disrupted by emerging computing devices. Mature markets such as the US and Western Europe, in particular, had a rough year, with shipments in 2011 shrinking by 9% compared to 2010, says IDC.

Although emerging markets have continued to show good uptake, IDC has slightly reduced its outlook in some regions. The 2012 forecast for China has been lowered to 9%, the first time single-digit growth has been forecast for a year. Part of the adjustment among emerging markets comes from the shortage of disk drives, which greatly impacts white box PC manufacturers who play a prevalent role in these markets, says the firm. Second, the prospect of slowing exports will also likely affect PC spending, as consumers and smaller businesses in developing countries scale back.