SCOTTSDALE, AZ – With economic conditions remaining shaky through most of 2009, personal computer sales are forecast to suffer a rare-but-modest decline next year, and PC unit growth is expected to slow down to about half the rate seen in 2008, according to IC Insights.

In 2009, however, shipments of portable notebook computers are expected to exceed desktop PCs for the first time ever. Notebook PC shipments are projected to rise 13% to 156 million systems in 2009, versus a 3% decline for desktop systems to 143 million, says the research firm. Worldwide shipments of notebook computers are expected to reach 264 million in 2012 compared to 178 million desktop PCs.

Overall PC dollar volumes are forecast to decline 3% next year to $240 billion. While market conditions will remain weak through much of 2009, IC Insights does not believe the PC segment will suffer a protracted downturn, as was the case in the 2001-2002 recession. Supply-chain inventories did not grow out of control in 2008, and PCs are more pervasive than they were at the start of this decade. Growing demand for low-cost systems in developing regions is also helping offset some weakness in the U.S., European, and Japanese markets. PC revenues are now forecast to rebound by more than 9% in 2010 to about $263 million. PC unit growth is also expected to surge back in 2010 with shipments rising 15% to 350 million systems worldwide compared to a projected 5% increase in 2009.

During the 2009 slowdown year, PC integrated circuit sales will fall 6% to $66.4 billion, the firm says. IC sales for PCs dropped 3% in 2008 to an estimated $70.4 billion after slipping 4% in 2007 to $72.3 billion, mainly as a result of price erosion in DRAMs and x86 central microprocessors sold by Intel and rival Advanced Micro Devices. IC sales are expected to rebound in 2010, reaching an annual record high of $83 billion in 2011.