WALTHAM, MA -- Worldwide semiconductor revenues will fall nearly 20% this year to $199.2 billion, a drop that will take until at least 2012 to recover from, according to In-Stat. The rebound will be strong and will start next year, however, the research firm says.

Semiconductor fab capacity utilization has fallen from 90% early in 2008 to 87% in the third quarter of last year.

The firm forecasts a recovery to start in the second half of this year. It estimates 2010 sales growth of 11.8%.

Spending will remain conservative even after liquidity improves and the economic recovery is well underway, said In-Stat analyst Jim McGregor. He points to restored consumer and business confidence -- and overcoming excess capacity -- as keys to the recovery.