BEIJING -- A poll of nearly three dozen tin producers, traders and consumers at the first Tin Market Outlook reception sponsored by ITRI China in Beijing last week suggests most expect only a very gradual improvement in market conditions.

High import levels coupled with weak local demand have resulted in large inventories in China. Chinese domestic solder companies has cut production by more than 10% in 2012, and tinplate capacity utilization is around 50%. Tin chemicals is the only major application where there may have been an uptick in use in 2012, according to Peter Kettle, ITRI manager of statistics and market studies.

The respondents included 34 delegates from 24 companies, including seven participants from producers, five from traders, six from consumers and 16 from funds, brokers, consultancies and research organizations.

Most of those surveyed were quite cautious about pricing even though they expect higher demand. Most expect modest gains from current levels. The mean forecast for the annual average LME cash settlement tin price in 2013 was $23,400/tonne, up from the mean year-to-date 2012 average of $20,940/tonne. The mean forecast for the annual average China domestic tin price was RMB 162,900 yuan/tonne, up from 157,400yuan/tonne in 2012.

Most of the respondents predict tin prices will bottom in the first quarter and peak in the fourth quarter of 2013. Very few expected a supply surplus or constraints next year.