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LOS ALTOS, CA – Semiconductors have fallen, revenues slowed and factory investment has headed south. In fact, outlays for chip facilities are forecast to be off 20.3% this year after a modest 5.7% advance in 2007, says Henderson Ventures.
Rollercoaster investment spending has created a corresponding pattern for IC manufacturing capacity utilization. Because factory utilization has crept from 86.4% in the fourth quarter 2006 to 89.3% during the second quarter 2008, chip prices were up 5.5% during the second quarter, according to the firm. Consequently, global semiconductor revenues were up 8% during the same quarter, even though unit deliveries grew little because of inventory divestment.
Looking ahead, PC and mobile phone manufacturers are upbeat about second-half prospects. Their enthusiasm is evident in the 12% jump in semiconductor bookings during the second quarter. As a result, Henderson has forecast a relatively optimistic 8.9% increase for shipments this year, after a meager 3.2% gain in 2007.
But the spreading global economic slump will undercut 2009 consumer spending for PCs and cellphones, the firm adds. Unit semiconductor growth will suffer, but the plunge in 2008 investment spending will keep chip prices from cratering. Consequently, 2009 revenues are predicted to increase 7.2%. An economic revival is forecast to spur a 14.5% jump in chip sales in 2010.
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